While there are many online data dashboards on COVID-19, there are few analytics available to the general public to help them gain a deeper insight into the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluate the effectiveness of social intervention measures. To address the issue, we have developed a real-time, data-driven online Epidemic Calculator for tracking COVID-19 growth parameters. The COVID-19 Epidemic Calculator is available in the form of an online Google Sheet and the results are presented here as Tableau Public dashboards and maps.
From publicly available infection case and death data, the calculator is used to estimate the effective reproduction number, doubling time, final epidemic size, and death toll.
The results allow us to meaningfully assess the effectiveness of social intervention measures to control the pandemic.
As an example, we analyzed the results for Singapore during the “Circuit breaker” period from April 7, 2020 to the end of May 2020. The calculator shows that the stringent measures imposed have an immediate effect of rapidly slowing down the spread of the coronavirus. After about two weeks, the effective reproduction number reduced to about 1.0.
In another example, on June 30, an outdoor street party in Prague, Czech Republic, celebrated the end of the pandemic. Mask wearing was no longer mandated, theaters reopened, indoor dining returned, and travel abroad was allowed. The calculator shows that the effective reproduction number rose from a low point to above 1.0 within a week, and has remained over 1.0 since.